Navigating the Storm: How South Sudan’s Conflict Is Disrupting Supply Chains for Kenyan Shippers
Wed, 19 Nov 2025 18:46:46 GMT
4 min read
Univar Logistics
Image representing conflict in South Sudan
The persistent political instability and conflict in South Sudan have created a treacherous operating environment for shippers, particularly those reliant on the vital Northern Transport Corridorlinking the Port of Mombasa to East and Central African markets. For Kenyan logistics providers, this has translated into a harsh reality of uncertainty, soaring operational costs, and compromised delivery reliability. South Sudan, a significant trade partner and the second-largest transit market through Mombasa after Uganda, plays a critical role in the region’s supply chain dynamics, making the current disruptions a major concern for Kenyan businesses.
The Triple Threat: Costs, Delays, and Risk
The heightened tensions and sporadic violence along the key transit routes, such as the Mombasa-Juba Corridor, present a triple-edged challenge to Kenyan shippers.
1. Escalating Security Costs and Risks
The most immediate and severe impact is the dramatic rise in security risks. The threat of armed robbery, violent attacks on cargo convoys, and kidnapping is a grim reality for truckers.
Risk to Personnel and Assets: Attacks on the Juba-Nimule highway have led to the tragic loss of life, resulting in periodic boycotts and suspensions of services by Kenyan Transporters Associations (KTA).
Mandatory Security Measures: Shippers are often forced to pay for physical security escorts by armed forces and implement other protective measures, significantly inflating the overall logistics cost. This is compounded by the numerous, often illegal, roadblocks and checkpoints which levy informal “taxes,” making transport in South Sudan among the most expensive globally.
2. Protracted Transit Times and Reliability Loss
Instability inherently introduces unpredictability, causing significant delays that ripple through the supply chain.
Road Network Deterioration: Conflict-related damage and lack of maintenance mean poor road conditions, especially during the rainy season, which can turn a multi-day journey into a week-long ordeal.
Border and Customs Delays: Political and administrative friction, such as temporary stalemates over new invoicing or tax collection policies, can cause massive cargo congestion at the Port of Mombasa and border points like Elegu. While disputes are often resolved, the resulting delays lead to substantial financial penalties, notably demurrage charges on containers.
3. Financial Burden and Capital Traps
The confluence of security risks and operational delays creates a punishing financial environment for shippers and consignees.
High Container Deposits: Shipping lines impose substantial deposits (e.g., up to $5,000 per container) to mitigate the risk of containers being withheld, lost, or damaged in South Sudan. Failure to return empty containers promptly results in rapid accumulation of high daily demurrage fees, a cost ultimately borne by importers and consumers.
Wider Economic Impact: The high cost of transport and lack of reliability translate directly into inflated retail prices for essential goods in import-dependent South Sudan, while also negatively impacting the viability of Kenyan exports, which plunge during periods of high instability. South Sudan’s inability to secure and repatriate empty containers strains the regional shipping ecosystem.
The Way Forward: Resilience and Diversification
Kenyan shippers and regional trade bodies are exploring strategies to build supply chain resilience against this backdrop of instability.
Infrastructure Alternatives: Projects like the Lamu Port-South-Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor are long-term, transformative initiatives that, if fully realized, could offer a more secure and efficient alternative route, reducing reliance on the current northern artery.
Regional Cooperation: Continued diplomatic and trade efforts under the Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA) and the East African Community (EAC) are crucial for standardizing processes and enhancing security protocols along the route.
Inventory Management: For Kenyan businesses exporting to South Sudan, adopting innovative inventory and distribution models is becoming necessary to mitigate the risks associated with long, unpredictable lead times.
The current conflict in South Sudan is more than a regional political issue; it is a profound logistical challenge that threatens to undermine Kenya’s strategic position as the gateway to East Africa. Stabilizing the northern routes is not just a matter of trade facilitation, but an imperative for regional economic stability.
